[转帖] [Business education] [2013.1.26] Has Apple peaked? 苹果公司盛世已过？

showcraft

http://www.ecolion.cn/thread-179513-1-1.html
Information technology
信息技术
Has Apple peaked?   
苹果公司盛世已过？
The world’s most valuable firm may be past its prime
这个世界上最有价值的企业也许已经过了它的全盛时期
Jan 26th 2013| SAN FRANCISCO|From the print edition



TECH blogs are a buzz. Pundits are busy pumping out predictions. The company that makes the new device that is attracting so much attention is teasing reporters by being coy about its innovative features. Apple’s product launches are always like this. But this time the fuss is not about an Apple product: it is about Samsung’s latest Galaxy smartphone, which is likely to be launched in March.

科技博文一片红火，专家们纷纷急不可耐地作出预言。吸引了众多目光的装置公司对新产品半遮半掩，吊足了媒体的胃口。苹果的产品总是这样出场的。但是近期引起市场躁动的却并非苹果产品，而是三星将要在三月上市的最新银河（Galaxy）系列智能手机。

Stiffer competition in smartphones and tablets from the likes of Samsung has spooked investors in Apple. They got another fright on January 23rd when the firm revealed that its latest quarterly profit of $13 billion was flat because of higher manufacturing costs. That triggered a rout in after-hours trading: at one point some $57 billion was wiped off Apple’s market capitalisation, roughly the equivalent of the entire value of Ford, a carmaker.

愈发激烈的与三星及其他公司之间进行的智能手机和平板电脑的竞争已经吓住了苹果的投资者。接着，在1月23日苹果公司透露，由于更高的制造成本，第四季度130亿美元的利润表现平平，这又使投资者们遭受了更大的打击，与此同时触发了盘后交易的超甩，一度使得苹果公司的市值蒸发570亿美元，这数目几乎等同于整个汽车制造商福特（Ford）的价值。

Apple’s shares have been mauled by bears many times before (see chart 1), but they have always recovered. The big question on many investors’ minds is whether the firm can rebound again. Two things have whetted the bears’ appetites.

苹果公司的股价曾数度遭受重挫（见表1），但是它回升至高位。目前投资者们最想知道的问题就是，苹果这次还能否重振雄风。做空的动力有两个因素。



First, Steve Jobs, Apple’s founder and creative genius, is dead. The iPhones and iPads he sired still generate gargantuan profits. But his successor, Tim Cook, has yet to prove himself capable of bringing new breakthrough products to market. Second, Apple’s fantastic profit margins—38.6% on sales of $55 billion—attract competitors like sweetshops attract six-year-olds.

首先，苹果的创始人兼创意奇才史蒂夫 乔布斯（Steve Jobs）去世了，他创作的iphone和ipad系列产品依旧给公司带来巨额的利润。然而他的继任者蒂姆 库克（Tim Cook）并未展露出能够给公司带来突破性产品的能力。其次，苹果公司550亿美元即38.6%的边际利润像是糖果店对六岁孩童的吸引力一般为其招致无数竞争对手。



The company’s fans pooh-pooh the idea that Apple has peaked. The firm’s price-earnings ratio—11.6 at close of business on January 23rd—is not much different from Microsoft’s (see chart 2). That makes Apple’s shares look relatively sexy. Unlike Microsoft, which depends heavily on the ailing personal-computer business, Apple concentrates on sectors that are growing fast, such as smartphones and tablets. Only one of 60 analysts tracked by Bloomberg had a “sell” recommendation on Apple before this week’s stockmarket fallout.

果粉们对苹果公司盛世难再的说法不屑一顾。公司1月23日11.6的市盈率与微软公司相差无几（见图2），这使得苹果公司的股票看上去格外诱人。不同于重度依赖于弱势个人电脑生意的微软，苹果公司面向如今正蓬勃发展的智能手机和平板电脑市场。在本周股市跳水之前，彭博通讯社（Bloomberg）采访的60位分析家仅一人建议抛售苹果股票。

A drizzle of negative news had already dampened investors’ ardour before this week’s earnings announcement. Apple bungled the introduction of its new mapping app, and there were rumours of cuts in component orders for the iPhone 5. But iBulls still expect sunshine this year: news of new gizmos that Apple has created and new markets it is set to disrupt.

接连不断的负面消息在本周财报发布之前已浇灭了投资者们的热忱。苹果公司把它新地图应用的推出搞得一团糟，市面上还传出了削减iphone5零件订单的说法。然而，有新闻称苹果公司创造的新装置将为其带来颠覆市场动力，苹果股票的看涨者们（可以直接翻为多头么）坚信着今年苹果将扭转其黯淡前景。

One of those gadgets is likely to be a much cheaper iPhone aimed at emerging markets. In China, where some men have reportedly been dumped for failing to buy their girlfriends iPhone 5s, Apple sold 2m of its top-of-the-range devices over its launch weekend last month. However, most Chinese shoppers can’t afford the things. Barclays, an investment bank, reckons Apple could produce an iPhone for less than $150 to broaden its appeal.

其中一个新产品可能是定位于新兴市场的价格更低廉的iphone。在中国，仅在上个月新产品发布的周末，苹果的前沿产品销量便达到了两百万台，有报道称一些男人因为无法为他们的女朋友买上一台iphone 5而被甩。然而许多中国的消费者却买不起这样的产品。投行巴莱克（Barclays）估计，苹果公司将生产出一款少于150美元的iphone来扩张市场。

The firm has played down reports of a cheaper iPhone, but Apple-watchers expect an announcement this year. Slimmer profit margins in China and India may be worth it to woo millions of new buyers. Apple is said to be close to a distribution agreement with China Mobile, a carrier with a hefty 700m subscribers. News of a deal may boost Apple’s shares.

虽然苹果公司淡化了关于廉价iphone的宣传，然而苹果观察者们（Apple-watchers）却期待着今年这个产品消息能够尘埃落定。在中国和印度削减边际利润能够为其赢得数以百万的新买家，这个举措或许是值得的。据称，苹果将与有着7亿用户的电信营运商“中国移动”签署分销协议，一旦达成，这个消息或许能够为苹果公司的股价打一剂强心针。

Yet the best way for the company to prove it is not past its prime would be for it to disrupt another big market. Since Jobs’s death in 2011 Apple has concentrated on sprucing up its existing products. Now investors want to see it conjure up entirely new ones. All eyes are on television (though Apple is also exploring the potential of other markets, such as wearable computing: see article). Mr Cook says television is an area of “intense interest”. He told interviewers that when he switches on the TV in his living room, he feels like he has “gone backwards in time by 20 or 30 years.” This fuels expectations that Apple will launch an iTV later this year.

然而要证明自己还未过巅峰，苹果公司最好的方法便是重新开发一个巨大的市场。自从2011年乔布斯辞世起，苹果一直致力于完善现有产品。而现今，投资者们则希望看到一些全新的东西。所有的目光都转向了电视机（尽管苹果公司也探触过其他市场，例如可穿戴计算设备：另见文）。库克表示，电视机是一个“令人有着强烈兴趣”的领域。他告诉记者，当他来到客厅打开电视时，他觉得“时光倒退了二、三十年”。这激发了人们对今年年底苹果将开发出iTV产品的期待。

Sceptics point out that plenty of elegant, wafer-thin screens are already on sale. Moreover, Apple’s existing set-top box, which lets users play content from iTunes, Netflix and other services on their TVs, has not been a stunning success. But this misses the—so to speak—bigger picture. The iTV, which may be controlled via gestures and voice commands as well as via iPads and iPhones, could be a digital hub for the home. It would let people check whether their washing machine has finished its cycle while they gossip on Facebook and watch their favourite soap. Peter Misek of Jefferies, an investment bank, says sales of it should also boost purchases of iPads and other Apple gear, as more people get sucked into the firm’s “ecosystem” of linked devices and software.

一部分专家指出，日前电视机市场已然有精致超薄的屏幕在售。加之，苹果设计出允许用户播放iTunes、Netflix以及其他服务内容的机顶盒并非令人惊喜的成就。但是，他们并未看到所谓的全局。iTV，这个能够被iPad和iPhone甚至身体姿势和声音控制的电子设备有可能成为一家的数字化中枢。它能够允许用户在浏览Facebook网站与看肥皂剧的同时检查洗衣机是否完成了工作。投行Jefferies的Peter Misek表示，由于更多的用户将陷落到苹果设备构造出的“生态系统”中，iTV的销售将同时带动iPad与其他苹果产品的销量到达一个新的高度。

But the iTV is no surefire blockbuster. For one thing, persuading cable and broadcast outfits to make programming available over the internet on demand will be tricky. They have already seen how such a model crushed music companies. For another, iTVs are likely to be pretty expensive, limiting their mass-market appeal.

但是iTV这个重磅炸药并非是万无一失的。一方面，要说服有线电视和广播允许其节目在网上按需索求是很困难的。因为他们已经看到了唱片公司的垮台的前车之鉴。另一方面，iTV很可能因为昂贵的价格削弱其在大众市场的吸引力。

Apple will also, as usual, face stiff competition from Samsung. The South Korean firm is one of several that already sell smart TVs. Indeed, Samsung seems to be churning out more and more groundbreaking devices while Apple has produced only incremental innovations of late. Apple’s court battles with Samsung over smartphone patents have reinforced the impression that it is on the defensive.

与此同时，苹果依然将面临与三星的严峻的竞争。这家韩国企业是仅有的几家已经开始销售智能电视的公司。三星集团日前的确为市场带来了越来越多的突破性产品，此时的苹果公司仍局限于改进原有创意。苹果公司与三星集团关于智能手机产权的官司也向人们强化了苹果趋于防势的印象。



However, Horace Dediu of Asymco, a research firm, says it would be a mistake to think Apple is resting on its laurels. He notes that its capital expenditure has soared in recent quarters, reaching levels typically seen at firms with huge manufacturing operations, such as Intel (see chart 3). Some of this money is going into data centres to support cloud services like iTunes. But Mr Dediu reckons much of it is being spent on dedicated production equipment at suppliers. This could give Apple an edge in producing new gadgets.

然而，研究机构Asymco的Horace Dediu表示关于苹果止步不前的想法是错误的。他注意到，苹果公司最近几个季度的资本支出呈激增态势，达到了像是英特尔（见图3）那种拥有巨大制造业务的公司的支出水平。一部分资金将被用来支持云端服务数据中心。Dediu先生剩余主要资金将被花费在供应商的专用生产设备上。这使得苹果公司在生产新配件上拥有了一定的优势。

Yet even if it produces a cheaper iPhone, pushes deep into China and wows the world with a smart TV, its shares will not reconquer last year’s peak. Competition is now tougher in its core markets. Rivals will not let it disrupt new ones so easily. Apple may dip into its $137 billion cash lake to boost its share price by paying fatter dividends or buying back more stock. That would delight some investors, but others would see it as a tacit admission that the firm’s great innovation engine has stalled. Apple won’t crumble, but it has peaked.

然而，即便它能共出产更加廉价的iPhone，推动中国的销量，以及用只能电视席卷世界，它的股票依旧很难上升至去年的鼎盛时期水平。竞争形势愈发地严峻，竞争对手们不会让苹果轻易颠覆市场。苹果公司也许会动用其1,370亿美元的现金储备，通过增发股利或者回购股票的方式刺激股价回升。这或许会令部分投资者满意，但是其他投资者却会将其看做苹果公司创造力枯凝的暗示。苹果不会分崩瓦解，但是它确已过巅峰。

ironland

要放弃苹果不容易。它不仅是硬件，还有操作系统。曾经有人开玩笑，未来人群要以操作系统划分，安卓和苹果。

showcraft

苹果帝国，目前来看不可能一日崩溃，至少也是渐进衰弱，而且瘦死骆驼比马大，除了三星以外，没有太大的对手。

jianmin

苹果为什么这么牛？还是没搞明白。

ironland

4# jianmin
单就手机和平板电脑而言，我觉得用户体验好。它把用户当傻子，而不是计算机高手。
给父母买了mini，他们很快就能上手，我妈觉得比数码照相机方便多了。现在他们各自捧一个看PPS。

另外它培养了用户付费的习惯。碰到个做游戏的，说从安卓上得到的收益只有从APP上得到的5%。这使得在苹果最红的时候，曾有游戏公司表示会只开发APP版本。电子书的开发（非PDF型）和苹果的兴旺亦有几分暗合。

此外苹果的工业设计确实好，虽然近两年它的外形专利之争颇让人生厌。

jianmin

4# jianmin
单就手机和平板电脑而言，我觉得用户体验好。它把用户当傻子，而不是计算机高手。
给父母买了mini，他们很快就能上手，我妈觉得比数码照相机方便多了。现在他们各自捧一个看PPS。

另外它培养了用户 ...
ironland 发表于 2013-2-3 22:04

这些是很难做到的吗？似乎没有哪一个是别人无法做的。

ironland

6# jianmin
功能容易做，用户体验难做。
好比说，都是卖鞋子的店，货物品质差不多。一家的营业员友善，一家的营业员不那么友善。然后顾客就比较愿意去友善的那家店。
ios系统就像是比较友善的那家店。尤其是对于我这样嫌下载麻烦，宁可买碟的家伙来说，易上手、用钱换省事省时更重要些，简直恨不得电脑能像洗衣机那么简单。要我在安卓系统下一个个找免费软件、安装补丁等等，杀了我吧。宁可花钱买BIGFISH GAME之类的产品。而随着这些付费应用的积累，就越发难以更换系统，无法舍弃App Store的账户。

现在就指着其他手机能越狱成ios了。我倒是愿意试试其他家的智能机，但真心不想换系统。