[转帖] [2012.10.13] The New Model 瑞典模式

showcraft

http://www.ecocn.org/thread-147532-1-1.html
Sweden
瑞典
The new model
新模式
A bit more unequal, a lot more efficient
略有不均，大幅有效
Oct 13th 2012 | from the print edition


SALTSJÖBADEN, A CHARMING seaside town on the outskirts of Stockholm, has an iconic place in Swedish economic history. The “Saltsjöbaden Accord”, signed there between unions and employers in 1938, ushered in the consensus system of labour relations that remains a pillar of Sweden’s economic model. Nowadays the town is famous for a different reason. It is one of Stockholm’s fanciest suburbs, and the setting for “Sunny Side”, a popular television comedy that pokes fun at the country’s new rich. In the show, Saltsjöbaden’s yuppy residents fret over how to get their babies into the best nursery. A badly behaved child is threatened with banishment to Fisksätra, a poor enclave a few train stops away, where immigrants from 100 countries cram into dilapidated blocks of flats.
Saltsjöbaden这座迷人的海滨小城坐落在斯德哥尔摩市郊，它在瑞典经济史当中有着里程碑式的意义。1938年劳资双方在这里签署的“Saltsjöbaden协议”标志着劳务关系共识机制的诞生，这项机制直到今天仍然是瑞典经济模式的支柱之一。在当代，这座小城的名气则源于一个不同的原因：它是斯德哥尔摩最高档的郊区之一，同时也是流行电视剧“乐天派”的拍摄地点。这部喜剧拿瑞典的新富豪开涮，比如说，居住在这里的雅皮士们（年轻、富有、生活奢侈的中产阶级上班族）为如何使他们的孩子进入最好的托儿所而忧心忡忡，表现恶劣的孩子则会被威胁送到Fisksätra——距Saltsjöbaden仅几站之遥的一个贫穷地区，来自一百多个国家的移民正聚居在这座年久失修的小城里。

The most equal country in the world is becoming less so. Sweden’s Gini coefficient for disposable income is now 0.24, still a lot lower than the rich-world average of 0.31 but around 25% higher than it was a generation ago. That rise is causing considerable angst in a nation whose self-image is staunchly egalitarian. A leftist group caused a media hubbub earlier this year by organising a “class safari” bus tour of Saltsjöbaden and Fisksätra. Opposition leaders insist that the ruling centre-right party is turning Sweden into America.
世界上最平等的国家如今正在退步：瑞典的可支配收入基尼系数为0.24，仍然远远低于发达国家平均水平0.31，但是这一数字相比一代人以前已经上涨了25%。对于一向坚持将平等社会作为国家名片的瑞典来说，这一上升正在造成相等程度的社会忧虑。今年早些时候，一个左翼集团的行为在媒体上引发了轩然大波：它们在Saltsjöbaden和Fisksätra组织了一场名为“亲历阶级”的巴士旅行。反对党领袖也坚称执政的中右翼政党正在把瑞典变成美国。

Anders Borg, the finance minister, vehemently disagrees. Sweden, he argues, has gone from being a stagnant benefit-based society to a vibrant modern economy with a remarkably small rise in inequality. Its experience, he says, shows that dynamism and egalitarianism do not need to be at odds.
财政部长Anders Borg对此说法表示强烈反对。他认为：瑞典已经从一个发展停滞的福利社会转变为另一个生机勃勃的当代经济，与此同时，社会不均只有很小幅度的反弹。他还指出，瑞典的经验显示，经济繁荣与社会平等并不矛盾。

The facts bear him out. Thanks to deregulation, budget discipline and an extensive overhaul of the welfare state, Sweden’s economy has been transformed in the two decades since its banking crisis. The new Swedish model is quite different from the leftist stereotype.
事实证明了他的说法。正是由于政府放松监管、遵守预算要求和大幅改革社会福利机制， 瑞典经济在其银行业危机发生的20年之后已经实现了转型，并且新的瑞典模式与左翼的固有思路有显著不同。

Capitalism in Sweden is not inherently a lot more egalitarian than in other countries. Before the government steps in, the country’s Gini coefficient for the working-age population is 0.37, close to the OECD average and higher than Switzerland’s. Wage disparities are narrower than in Anglo-Saxon countries, thanks to centralised bargaining between unions and employers that sets minimum wages in different sectors. Top CEO pay has not risen nearly as dramatically as in America. But in other ways Sweden has been in the vanguard of many of the social changes that have boosted inequality in other countries, such as the decline of marriage.
瑞典资本主义并非在本质上比其他国家更具平均主义色彩。在政府介入之前，瑞典工作人口的基尼系数为0.37，接近经合组织（OECD）平均水平但高于瑞士。劳资双方在集中谈判后为不同部门定下了相应的最低工资标准，使得瑞典的工资分配要比盎格鲁—撒克逊国家平均不少，另外高层CEO的薪资水平上涨幅度也远远不及美国。但与此同时，瑞典还在另外一些社会变革方面走在了前列，比如说：结婚率的下跌。而这些社会变化在其他国家已经加剧了社会不均。

The main source of egalitarianism in Sweden (and elsewhere in Scandinavia) is redistribution by the state. Under the old welfare model people paid high tax rates and got lots of social services and big transfers in return. The new model, broadly, retains most of the services but has cut the taxes and transfers.
瑞典（和其他斯堪的纳维亚国家）平等主义的主要根源在于由政府主导的再分配。在旧的福利模式下，人们缴纳高税收，同时得到数量繁多的社会服务和可观的转移支付收入。新的模式，总的来讲，保留了大部分社会服务，但是削减了税收和转移支付。

In the early 1990s Sweden introduced a “dual income tax” system, which combined a flat tax on capital with a higher, progressive income tax. More recent reforms went further. The inheritance tax was eliminated in 2005, the wealth tax in 2007 and taxes on residential property in 2008. Thanks, in part, to these tax changes, capital income has soared, particularly at the top of Sweden’s income scale. That has not always improved efficiency. For instance, Sweden’s tax code now favours residential property over more productive investment.
20世纪90年代早期，瑞典引入了“双重所得税”。在这一机制下，政府对资本征收统一税率，对收入则征收更高的演进税率。近期的改革走得更远：政府于2005年废除遗产税，2007年废除财产税，2008年废除居住用地产税。瑞典（尤其是其最高收入阶层）资本收入的暴涨要部分归功于这些税制改革。尽管如此，它们并非一味提高效率。比如说：瑞典税制鼓励投资居住用地产而非更高回报的投资。

More recently, and more sensibly, Sweden has cut taxes on labour, especially for the low-skilled. The Earned Income Tax Credit, which offers strong incentives for lower-skilled people to work, marks the biggest change. Other innovations, such as a credit for hiring household help, are designed to spur demand for low-wage workers. Union membership dues, in contrast, no longer qualify for tax relief. Benefits have been reformed at the same time as taxes. All handouts, from jobless aid to disability benefits, have become less generous, more short-lived and harder to qualify for.
就在最近，瑞典进行了另外一场更为明智的税收改革：削减劳工（尤其是低技能劳工）的税负。其中最大的改变莫过于“所得税优惠条例”，它的出台为低技能劳公就业提供了极大的税收激励。其他的一些创新，比如说为家庭招募帮工提供税收优惠，则是为了增加低工资劳工的需求。与此相反，工会会费则不再享有税收减免。福利改革也在同时进行：从失业援助到残疾福利的所有社会救济项目都不再如之前那般慷慨，福利期限缩短，申请条件也变得更加严格。

All this has brought about palpable changes. Notice boards at Stockholm’s suburban railway stations are filled with advertisements for cleaners, once an unheard-of luxury. The Iraqis, Somalis and other low-skilled foreigners in Fisksätra, unlike migrants a generation ago, can no longer count on a drip-feed of government support. The combination of lower taxes and fewer benefits is intended to encourage people to work. And getting more of them to take jobs, argues Mr Borg, is the key not only to faster growth but also to keeping inequality low. His ministry reckons that in the long term Sweden’s reforms will raise the country’s employment rate by 5%.
这些改革已经在社会上引发了明显的变化。斯德哥尔摩市郊地铁站的公告板上如今贴满了招收清洁工的广告。这在从前可是闻所未闻的奢侈消费。Fisksätra的伊拉克、索马里和其他国家的低技能移民已经不能再像一代人以前那样单纯依靠政府输血度日。低税率低福利的组合正是为了鼓励人们就业。Borg指出，让更多低技能移民加入就业队伍并不仅仅是促进经济发展的关键，还有利于维持社会平等。他的部门认为瑞典的改革就长期来讲可以使本国的就业率提高5%。

Critics on the left fear that inequality will surge, for at least two reasons. Trade unionists worry that the reforms will reduce union membership, undermining the consensual system of labour relations. Ola Pettersson, chief economist of Sweden’s Trade Union Confederation, says the government is “undercutting” the Swedish labour model. That seems an exaggeration. With more than seven out of ten workers still members of unions, Sweden’s collective bargaining model looks safe for now.
左翼批评人士担心这些做法将会至少在两个方面加剧社会不均：贸易工会支持者担忧改革将会减少工会会员人数，从而削弱劳资关系共识机制。瑞典贸易工会联盟首席经济学家Ola Pettersson指出，政府正在“摧毁”瑞典劳工模式。这种说法显然是夸张。迄今为止，七成以上瑞典员工仍然是工会成员，该国的集团谈判模式至少在现在看来仍然是稳固的。

Others suspect a poverty trap in the making, with people stuck with low skills in low-wage jobs. That seems a more serious risk, particularly for Sweden’s recent migrants who, by and large, are poorly educated and speak little Swedish. Pernilla Landin, a social worker who runs a multi-faith community centre in Fisksätra, already sees dangerous signs of social exclusion. “People don’t have enough money to buy a train card,” she says, “so they can’t get out to look for work.”
另外一些人则认为这些政策正在造成一个贫困陷阱，低技能人群陷在工资卑微的就业岗位上无法翻身。考虑到瑞典近期移民中的大部分教育程度低下，鲜能掌握瑞典语，这种局面的发生似乎对瑞典社会是一个更严重的风险。社会工作者Pernilla Landin在Fisksätra经营着一个多元信仰的社区，她已经发觉了一丝危险的排外信号。她说：“这里的人们没有足够的钱来购买一张火车卡，所以他们无法走出这里寻找工作。”

But the danger is vastly reduced by Sweden’s all-enveloping public services. Although government spending has shrunk in recent years, the Swedish state is still large (51% of GDP last year), and it spends much more than Anglo-Saxon countries do on everything from early-childhood education to job search and training. According to the OECD, more than 70% of the children of the poorest fifth of Swedes are in state-financed child-care and education schemes, compared with fewer than 30% in America.
瑞典全面的公共服务系统在很大程度上缓解了这一忧虑。尽管政府支出在最近几年有所萎缩，但是瑞典政府仍然在社会生活中占有很大的份额（去年公共支出占GDP的51%），在从早期教育到求职和职业训练的各个方面瑞典政府的支出都远远高于盎格鲁-撒克逊国家。根据OECD数据，瑞典最贫穷的1/5家庭中70%的孩子都享有政府提供的儿童保育和教育机制，这一数字在美国是不到30%。

Sweden’s government has also experimented more boldly than others with boosting public-service efficiency. Many schools are now independently run, and in health care private management is a growing trend. Public services have not entirely escaped cuts, but they started high and were designed to protect the poor. Once you allow for the progressivity of public services, the OECD reckons, Sweden’s Gini drops to 0.18. That still leaves it as the world’s most equal place, as well as one of the fastest-growing and fiscally stable countries in the rich world.
瑞典政府在提高公共服务效率上也进行了比其他国家更为大胆的实验。当地很多学校现在已经独立运营，另外在医疗保障上实行私人管理也是一个发展趋势。尽管公共服务也未能免于支出削减的波及，但是瑞典的公共服务本就起点很高而且其自身目的就在于保护穷人。OECD认为，若将所提供的公共服务的先进程度考虑进去，瑞典的基尼系数将下降至0.18，仍然是世界上最平等的国家。同时，瑞典还是发达国家中增长速度最快，能够在财政上保持稳定的国家之一。

It would be naive to think that its model can simply be copied elsewhere. Sweden’s citizens are strikingly committed to social cohesion, and willing to pay for a large state. A revival of America’s union movement would be likely to lead to growth-destroying rigidities. Equally, it is hard to see Americans accepting the taxes that would go with government spending of more than 50% of GDP. Sweden’s remake of the welfare state is most relevant in Europe, where in the aftermath of the financial crisis many countries are now struggling with unsustainable public finances, as Sweden did 20 years ago.
认为瑞典模式可以被其他国家轻易复制是一个天真的想法。瑞典国民对于社会凝聚力的忠诚让人吃惊，他们也愿意为一个大政府买单。若在美国复兴工会运动，结果可能只会导致一场摧残经济发展的僵局。同样来说，很难想象美国公民会接受高税收来支持一个支出超过国家GDP半壁江山的大政府。瑞典在福利国家上进行的改革对于欧洲更具借鉴意义：金融危机导致很多欧洲国家难以维系高昂的公共财政，就像瑞典在20年前遭遇的局面一样。

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Nonetheless, there are broader lessons. Sweden’s experience suggests that the welfare state can be trimmed by cutting transfers and maintaining progressive investment in social services, without allowing inequality to surge. And a revamp of the welfare state that encourages employment can boost growth while keeping income gaps to a minimum.
然而，瑞典足以在很多方面教育其他国家。其经验证明，在降低转移支付的同时维持在公共服务投资上的增长趋势可以避免社会不均的失控，同时实现削减福利国家规模的目的。瑞典对福利国家的再造鼓励了就业，进而促进了经济发展，同时收入差距也得以维持在最小的程度。

The most important conclusion, however, comes from considering Sweden’s experience alongside the recent record of the United States, emerging Asia and Latin America. All these case studies indicate that the geography of contemporary inequality has as much to do with government policy as with underlying economic forces. But it has not been a simple tale of tax and redistribution, nor is there a simple trade-off between efficiency and inequality. Sweden’s economy has become much more efficient while still keeping inequality low. America’s system of taxes and transfers is less progressive than it was in the 1970s, yet the state is no smaller. That suggests there is room for reforms that both counter inequality and improve economies’ efficiency.
然而，只有当你将瑞典的经验与美国、崛起中的亚洲和拉美这些地区的近期记录结合在一起才能得到最重要的结论。所有的这些案例都显示，政府政策和经济法则在解释当代世界各地理区域为什么发展不均这一问题上同样重要。问题并不仅仅在于税收和再分配，效率和公平也不仅仅是简单的此消彼长关系。瑞典经济在尽量保证社会公平的同时极大提高了效率。而尽管美国现在的税负和转移支付低于20世纪70年代的水平，政府规模并未见丝毫减少。这一比较证明，政府在同时提高经济效率和对抗社会不均上仍有改革空间。

from the print edition | Special report