[转帖] [2013.3.2] Bonanza or bane 美国的廉价天然气，是福，是祸？

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http://www.ecocn.org/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=181011
America’s cheap gas
美国的廉价天然气

Bonanza or bane
是福，是祸？

Natural-gas prices are sure to rise—eventually
天然气涨价已成定局，但尚需时日

Mar 2nd 2013 |From the print edition



THE shale gas billowing out of American soil is a source of concern as well as cheap energy. Environmentalists worry that fracking, the technique for dislodging gas from shale beds, may pollute the air and local water supplies. The glut of natural gas has a less likely set of victims, too. Instead of banking handsome profits, many of the oil and gas firms that drill for shale gas are suffering from the boom.

从美国地下滚滚涌出的页岩气不单是便宜的能源，也引发了担忧。环保人士担心水力压裂技术可能会污染空气以及当地水资源。该技术被用来从页岩中开采天然气。而天然气供过于求则产生了令人意想不到的一批受害者。非但没能获得可观的利润，许多开发页岩气的油气公司实际正在这场盛宴中痛苦度日。



Abundant supplies and slow growth in demand have sent gas prices crashing. In 2008 shale gas fetched $12 per million BTU (British thermal units) at Henry Hub, a crossroads of pipelines in Louisiana that serves as the main pricing point for the gas in America. Since then the frackers have been hard at work. From next to nothing shale now provides a quarter of supplies. The rapid rush of gas onto the market has sent prices tumbling (see chart). After falling to below $2 per mBTU in early 2012, prices have now nudged back to $3.40. But for many drillers this is still not enough. Most gas wells require $4 or more to cover costs.

供给充足加上需求增长缓慢令天然气价格猛跌。2008年，位于路易斯安那州的天然气管网交汇处亨利中心（Henry Hub）作为全美最主要的天然气报价点，页岩气价格为12美元/百万英热。自那时起，压裂人员就一直在忙于工作。从无到有，页岩气现在已经占据了天然气供应量的1/4。页岩气急速涌入市场使得天然气价格一路下跌（见图），2012年年初跌至2美元/百万英热以下，其后缓慢回升到3.4美元。但是，对于很多的油气开发商而言，这个价位仍然太低。大多数气井需要4美元的价格才能避免亏损。

Share prices have tumbled for firms such as Chesapeake Energy, Devon Energy and Southwestern Energy. Asset sales to help pay debts racked up by drilling wells have become the norm—on February 25th Chesapeake announced the sale of a stake in land containing wells as part of its efforts to raise $7 billion this year. The pain looks likely to persist. Analysts reckon that gas has a “sweet spot”, where drillers can make money while consumers still feel little pain, of around $5-6 per mBTU. But the economics of American shale beds means getting there will take time.

部分公司股价大跌，比如切萨皮克能源（Chesapeake Energy），戴文能源（Devon Energy），以及西南能源（Southwestern Energy）。为帮助清还因钻井所累积起的债务, 变卖资产已经成为家常便饭。2月25日，切萨皮克公司宣布：为努力实现今年筹措70亿美元的目标，公司将出售部分含气区块的股份。而痛苦却远未结束。分析师称，天然气的理想价位是5到6美元/百万英热附近。在这一区间，油气开发商能挣到钱，而消费者也并不介怀。但在美国，页岩的经济现状意味着价格到达这一区间尚需时日。

To cork the flow firms have shut down some existing wells and stopped investment in new ones. But some leases with the owners of land that sits atop reserves dictate that gas (and royalties) must flow regardless of prices. Intensive drilling in 2010 and 2011 has left a huge stock of wells that have been paid for but are yet to be hooked up to local pipelines. Some producers have also contracted to deliver gas at higher prices, which keeps the stuff flowing.

为抑制产量，一些公司已经关闭了部分现有气井，同时停止投资新井。但有一些油气藏所处地块是从地主手中租得的：租金不会停歇，所以无论价格高低，必须坚持正常产气。再者，2010年至2011年，高强度的钻井活动产生的油气井存量巨大。这些井的款项已经结清，但尚未和当地的输气管线连接。另外，一些生产商通过合同约定了较高的天然气外输价格，所以也在继续生产。

A quirk of geology is also preventing prices from rising faster. Shale beds can be “dry” or “wet”. As well as gas, the wet wells produce natural-gas liquids (NGLs) such as ethane, butane and propane. These hydrocarbons are valuable for making plastic in petrochemicals plants or for industrial and domestic uses such as firing industrial heaters and barbecues. NGL prices are linked to that of crude oil, the price of which is set globally (unlike gas) and is high. A healthy flow of NGLs will cover the cost of wells; the gas, a free by-product, hits the market whatever its price.

地质特点也使气价难以快速上扬。页岩有“干”、“湿”之分。同天然气一样，湿井产出的是天然气凝析液，如乙烷、丙烷、以及丁烷。这些烃类很有用：可以用于石油化工厂制造塑料，或是用于工业或家用领域，比如工业加热器的燃料以及烤肉。天然气凝析液的价格与原油价格挂钩，后者属于全球市场定价（天然气则不是），并且价格很高。良好的天然气凝析液产量能够抵消掉气井的成本。与此同时，天然气则沦为了免费的副产品，无论价格高低，尽可投入市场。

Some drilling rigs have been shunted from “dry” shales to “wet” ones, boosting supplies of this “free” gas. (The rush to liquid-rich shales has also led to a glut of NGLs, so their prices are falling: this will eventually mean less gas and higher prices.) Other rigs have been trucked to shale-oil beds such as the Eagleford in Texas and the Bakken in North Dakota, which also spew out “free” gas. In the Bakken much of it is wastefully flared (ie, burned). “Green completion” standards for wells due to take effect in the next two years will ensure that the gas will be collected and sold, potentially slowing price increases.

一些钻探设备从开发“干”气被分流到了“湿”气上，导致 “免费”天然气供给大增。（富含凝析液的页岩开发大跃进同样导致了凝析液供过于求，所以价格也在下跌：这种趋势最终将意味着更少的天然气以及更高的气价。）另一些钻井设备则被运抵油页岩矿床，比如德州的伊戈福德（Eagleford）和北达科他州的巴肯（Bakken）区域，这些地方同样出产“免费”天然气。在巴肯，许多天然气被白白烧掉了。今后两年内将开始生效的油气井“绿色完井”标准将确保天然气被收集并出售，这可能会减缓价格的上升。

Shale gas is still a relatively young industry. Opportunities for efficiency gains and cost-cutting abound. That makes lower prices more tolerable for producers. Energy giants such as ExxonMobil, Shell and Chevron are in for the long haul and have deep enough pockets to put up with low prices for a while. And differences in infrastructure can affect local markets so that prices may deviate from the Henry Hub benchmark.

页岩气仍旧是个相对新兴的行业。通过提高效率和削减成本而获取收益的机遇俯仰皆拾。对生产商而言，这使得低气价变得好受些。能源巨头们，比如埃克森美孚（ExxonMobil），壳牌（Shell）以及雪佛龙（Chevron）将长期参与其中，同时雄厚的财力也将使其能够在低价位上耗得住些日子。而基础设施方面的差异会影响地区性市场，所以价格会偏离亨利中心的参考价。

Statoil, Norway’s national oil company, bought a pipeline connecting the Marcellus shale in Pennsylvania to Toronto in Canada, where gas is around $1 per mBTU costlier. The company is building one to Manhattan for the same reason.

挪威国家石油公司购买了连接宾夕法尼亚州的马赛拉斯页岩到加拿大多伦多的管道。在多伦多，每百万英热的天然气的气价要高出大约1美元。出于相同的原因，该公司正在修建通往曼哈顿的管线。

Exporting liquefied natural gas (LNG) would be another way to deal with the gas glut. Gas markets are regional. Outside America, prices are typically much higher. Spot prices in Asia can reach $20. Moving American gas to Asia would therefore be lucrative, and it is perfectly possible.

出口液化天然气（LNG）是另一种应对天然气供大于求的方法。天然气市场是区域化的。在美国本土以外，价格往往要高出许多。亚洲的现货价格可以达到20美元。所以，将美国的天然气运往亚洲非常合算，而且也完全可行。

America’s Gulf coast is lined with plants to turn imported LNG into gas. Built back in the days when people thought that America would need to rely on imports, they are now idle. At a cost, they could be converted into plants that turn American gas into LNG for export.

在美国墨西哥湾的海岸线上，到处都是将进口液化天然气转化成气态的工厂。这些工厂修建于人们认为美国将需要依赖进口的日子里。而现在，它们却被闲置着。花些代价，它们可以被转化成将美国的天然气进行液化、用以出口的工厂。

One of them, Sabine Pass in Louisiana, has an export licence and could start sending gas abroad by 2015. Sixteen more have applied for licences. But gas-consuming American businesses object. In the hope of keeping domestic gas prices ultra-low, they are lobbying the government to block exports. The government, reluctant to anger both Greenpeace and Dow Chemical, is dragging its feet. Prices are sure to rise eventually, but not before producers suffer more pain from the boom they created.

位于路易斯安那州的Sabine Pass工厂是当中一员。它拥有出口许可证，在2015年前就能开始出口天然气了。而另外16家工程已经提交了许可证申请。但是美国的天然气消费方反对。他们希望美国本土天然气价格维持超低水平，所以正游说政府阻止出口。而政府方面则徘徊不定：既不想惹恼像绿色和平组织这样的环保组织，也不愿得罪陶氏化学公司这类天然气用气大户。气价上涨是必然的，但在这之前，生产商将从这场盛宴中忍受更多痛苦，而这正是他们一手造成的。