[转帖] [2013.4.20]The future of cars 汽车行业的前景

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http://www.ecocn.org/thread-185763-1-1.html
The future of cars 汽车行业的前景

Gloom and boom  是光明还是灰暗？

The motor industry’s fortunes are increasingly divided, says Peter Collins. But in the right markets and with the right technologies, they look surprisingly bright

皮特•科林斯说，汽车行业的命运越来越两极化。但是只要有对的市场，对的技术，这个行业前景看起来是惊人的好

Apr 20th 2013 |From the print edition



A HUNDRED YEARS ago Henry Ford and his engineers perfected an idea whose time had come: the moving assembly line. By putting the car on a conveyor belt, they cut the time taken to assemble a Ford Model T from 12 hours and 30 minutes in 1913 to just one hour and 33 minutes the following year. That made the car a lot cheaper to build and opened up a mass market for it. By 1918 its list price was down to $450, or just over 5 months’ pay for the average American worker, against the equivalent of about a year and a half’s pay when the car was launched a decade earlier. Cars became a personal badge of status, and in time carmaking became a badge of national virility.

1913年，也就是一百年前，亨利•福特和他的工程师们实现了移动装配线的这个概念。此前，福特时代已经来临。通过把车放在一条传输带上，他们减少了组装一辆福特T型车的时间，1913年需要花费的时间是12个半小时，1914年则只需1小时33分钟。这样使得组装一辆T型车的花费减少了许多，也使T型车走入了大众市场。到1918年，该车的定价减到450美元，相当于只需美国普通工人5个多月的工资。而早在1908年福特T型车刚推出时，费用相当于普通工人一年半的工资。汽车成为个人地位的象征，后来，汽车制造成为一国男子气概的象征。

But since the 1950s the automobile has come to be seen as dangerous, dirty and noisy. In response it has been ever more strictly regulated, which has imposed additional costs. After the financial crisis the entire industry slumped spectacularly in many rich countries. Two of America’s big three carmakers, Chrysler and General Motors, went bankrupt and had to be bailed out by taxpayers. In Europe car sales last year were the lowest since 1995. The battery-driven cars that were supposed to solve the pollution problem have so far been an expensive flop. The motor industry seems to be in dire straits.

但是从20世纪50年代起，汽车被看做是危险、肮脏和嘈杂的代名词。因此，汽车受到越来越严格的限制，这带来了额外的成本。金融危机后，在许多富有国家，整个汽车行业严重下滑。其中美国三大汽车制造商的克莱斯勒和通用汽车公司破产，只能依靠纳税人度过这段时期。去年是自1995年来欧洲汽车销售额最低的一年。蓄电池驱动的汽车的出现，原本希望可以解决污染问题，但到目前为止说明这是一次代价昂贵的尝试。汽车业的形势看似非常严峻。

Yet this special report sees plenty to be optimistic about. Sales in Japan remain stagnant and in Europe they are unlikely to grow much in the next few years, but in America they are already beginning to bounce back, and in China and other emerging markets the current boom looks likely to continue for the foreseeable future. AlixPartners, a consultancy, forecasts that the worldwide market for cars and other light vehicles will expand from about 80m units a year now to 107m in 2020 (see chart 1). In China, now the world’s biggest market for cars, annual sales are expected to rise from 19m last year to 31m in 2020 as car ownership spreads to the country’s vast interior. So over the next seven years a Europe-sized market will grow up in China’s hinterland.

但是，这次专题报道认为形势还是挺乐观的。尽管，今后的几年里，日本的汽车销售额仍旧停滞，欧洲的情况好不了多少，但是在美国，情况已经开始有所好转，在中国和其他一些新兴市场，目前的增长看似会持续较长一段时间。一家咨询公司AlixPartners预测，汽车和其他轻型汽车的全球交易量，目前一年大约是8000万，而到2020年将增加到10700万。现在，随着中国大陆 的人们开始买车，中国成为全球最大的汽车市场，去年的年汽车销售量是1900万，预计到2020年会增加到3100万。因此在接下的7年时间，中国大陆将会出现一个欧洲规模大小的市场。

Over the past decade tens of millions ，of Chinese families have gained personal mobility on an undreamt-of scale while lots of new jobs have been created making, selling and servicing cars in China. But the Chinese government seems less concerned about that than about its failure to create strong national champions capable of taking on the foreign carmakers on their own turf. In future it may try harder to achieve this aim, which could deter foreign firms from continuing to invest in the country. A wiser course would be to accept—as Britain, and more recently Russia, have already done—that as long as the business is thriving and generating lots of well-paid work, the nationality of a car factory’s owners and the badges on the bonnets hardly matter.

在过去的十年里，数百万的中国家庭获得大规模的个体流动，而中国在汽车的制造、销售和服务方面创造了很多新工作。但是，相比个体流动，中国政府更担心的是，在他们自己领土上，没有强有力的国有龙头企业可以与外国汽车制造商较量。在将来，中国可能会更加努力去实现这个目标，这样可以阻止外国公司继续对这个国家投资。一个更明智的办法是去接受这样一个事实，正如英国和俄罗斯所做的那样，只要汽车行业发展兴旺，有大量薪资不错的工作，那么汽车制造商属于哪个国家的，引擎盖上的标志这些事情都不重要。



As ever more consumers in China and other emerging markets have the money to buy fancier cars, makers of upmarket and high-performance vehicles will benefit. Mass-market carmakers will have a harder time: too many factories are being built, especially in big emerging markets, which will lead to intense competition and price-cutting. As the biggest, most efficient manufacturers—such as Volkswagen and Toyota—pull ahead, those in the second division may seek salvation in alliances.

在中国和其他新兴市场，随着越来越多的消费者有能力购买高档车，高档和高性能汽车的制造商将会因此受益。但针对大众市场的汽车制造商们将会有段更艰难的时期：因为现在兴建的工厂太多，尤其在庞大的新兴市场，这将导致激烈的竞争，引起汽车价格下降。一些最大的、效率最高的制造厂，如大众和丰田汽车，会成为领跑者。而屈居第二位的制造商们可能会用联盟的方式拯救自己。   

Consumer heaven 消费者的天堂

As an investment, then, the motor industry has to be treated with caution. But its engineering and environmental credentials are improving all the time. A century after becoming a mass-market product, the car is still a long way from being a mature technology. Manufacturers and their suppliers are investing huge sums in a variety of improved propulsion systems and in new lightweight materials to meet regulators’ emissions targets. The current generation of models is already vastly cleaner than earlier ones, and emissions of carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, soot and other pollutants are set to fall much further. The smog that began to afflict traffic-choked California in the 1950s and is now obscuring the sky in Chinese cities will gradually clear. The day may come when environmentalists stop worrying so much about cars and turn their attention to other polluters.

因此，投资汽车制造业一定要谨慎。一直以来，汽车制造业的工程和环境证书不断在改善。汽车走入大众市场已经有一百年了，但是汽车制造业技术的成熟仍有一段很长的路。制造商们和他们的供应商正投资大量的资金用来改进各种各样的推进系统以及研究新型轻质材料，目的是满足管理当局者对气体排放的要求。目前，这一代汽车产品比早些时候已经环保了许多，有关二氧化碳、氮氧化物、油烟和其他污染物的排放量降低了许多。20世纪50年代，加利福利亚交通拥堵严重，同时开始受到烟雾的困扰，如今，烟雾弥漫在中国一些城市的上空。但是，烟雾将会慢慢地变得干净。也许有一天会出现：环保人士不再过分担心汽车引起的问题，转而关注其他污染源。

Consumers will be in heaven. Improved manufacturing systems will allow the bigger carmakers to offer an ever wider range of models, supplemented by a steady stream of niche products from new entrants. Fierce competition will keep prices down even as cars are packed with ever more technology that will make them more expensive to produce. More of them will drive themselves, park themselves and avoid collisions automatically. That should cut down on accidents and traffic jams, reduce the stress associated with driving and provide personal mobility for the growing ranks of the elderly and disabled.

到时，消费者们将会开心得像入天堂。改进生产系统将会以较大型汽车制造商提供更广泛的汽车类型为主，辅助生产稳定的新进入市场需求的利基产品。即使汽车配备了更多的技术，这些技术使汽车制造成本增加，但是激烈的竞争会使得价格不会增长。将来，更多的汽车可以自行驾驶，自行停车，自动避免碰撞事故。这样应该可以降低事故和交通堵塞，减少开车人的压力，也为越来越多想要自己外出的年长者和残疾人，提供了条件。

All the technology that will go into making cars cleaner will also make them far more fuel-efficient and more economical. For motorists with short, predictable daily drives, all-electric cars may prove adequate and, as batteries improve, increasingly cost-effective. Others will be able to pick from a range of propulsion systems, including hybrid, natural gas and hydrogen as well as improved petrol or diesel engines, to suit their needs.

让汽车变得更加环保的所有技术也会使汽车燃油更少，更加划算。随着蓄电池的改进，对于想要乘汽车旅行的人，只要路途不远或者估计是一天的驾驶行程，那么电动汽车可能已经足够，而且日后会变得越来越划算。将来可能有各种各样的推进系统可供选择，满足其他人的需要，包括燃烧混合天然气、氢气还有改良石油或者柴油的发动机。

Manufacturers are hoping that all this technology will help counteract a worrying trend they are beginning to observe in rich countries: that car ownership is becoming unfashionable. In cities car-sharing and short-term hiring is becoming more popular. Young urbanites are getting their driving licences later, but the numbers of drivers at the other end of the age spectrum is growing, which may compensate for that loss.

在富有国家，制造商们现在开始发现一种可怕的趋势：买车正慢慢变得不再是流行。他们希望所有这些技术可以抑制上述的趋势。在一些城市，汽车共享和短期汽车租赁变得越来越流行。城市的年轻人获得驾照的时间越来越晚，但是其他年龄段的开车人数正在增加，这也许可以弥补那部分损失。

Best of all, in emerging markets there is enough pent-up demand to keep the industry growing for many decades yet. But which makers, in which countries, will reap the benefits?

然而最好的是，在新兴市场有足够多的潜在需求来保持该行业增长数十年。但是，哪些国家的制造商将会从中获利呢？

From the print edition: Special report